In a recent interview the MD of Daimler Benz (Mercedes Benz)
said their competitors are no longer other car companies but Tesla (obvious),
Google, Apple, Amazon 'et al'. There have always been the 3 constants. Death, Taxes and CHANGE!
Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the
next 5-10 years.
Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and
are now the biggest taxi company in the world
Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world,
although they don't own any properties.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially
better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go
player in the world, 10 years earlier
than expected.
In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of
IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff)
within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by
humans.
So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90%
less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain.
Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more
accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software
that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become
more intelligent than humans.
Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will
appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be
disrupted. You don't want to own a car
anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location
and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay
for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's licence and will never
own a car.
It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less
cars for that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks. 1.2 million
people die each year in car accidents
worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 miles (100,000 km), with
autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 6 million miles (10
million km). That will save a million lives each year.
Most car companies will probably become bankrupt.
Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better
car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary
approach and build a computer on wheels.
Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely
terrified of Tesla.
Insurance companies will have massive trouble because
without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance
business model will disappear.
Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you
commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful
neighborhood.
Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will
be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. Electricity will
become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential
curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact.
Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than
fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to
prevent competition from home solar installations, but that can't last.
Technology will take care of that strategy.
To be continued ...
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